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Inside Asia: Water Crisis Threatens Asia's Rise
2010-10-12 07:31:21.85 GMT
By ALAN WHEATLEY
(International Herald Tribune) -- JINGHONG, CHINA — Framed
by banana and eucalyptus trees, the caramel-colored Mekong River
rolls through this lush corner of Yunnan Province in southwestern
China with an unerring rhythm that is reassuring in its seeming
timelessness.
Yet as recently as April, a fearsome drought had shriveled
the Mekong to its narrowest width in 50 years. Water levels were
so low that at Guanlei, a river town not far from here, dozens of
boats were laid up for more than three months.
Alarmed at the drying up of the world's largest inland
fishery, the four members of the Mekong River Commission —
Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam — called a special summit
meeting.
"Without good and careful management of the Mekong River as
well as its natural resources, this great river will not
survive," Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of Thailand warned.
The commission's political leaders suspected that China was
hoarding water behind dams it has built on the Mekong,
exacerbating the effects of the drought.
China presented data to allay these fears. Finally, the
rains returned and the tensions dissipated.
But the incident highlighted the strains that are being
generated as the unslakable Asian thirst for water collides with
the reality of a supply that is limited and, if climate change
projections are borne out, may shrink sharply.
The Asian Development Bank speaks of a looming crisis that
threatens access to water and sanitation needs for millions of
households and industries.
The bank is holding a high-level conference at its
headquarters in Manila this week to chart solutions and canvass
greater regional cooperation.
"In the next 5 to 10 years, if the initiatives to secure
greater efficiencies in water are not put in place, you really
are at risk," said Arjun Thapan, the bank's special senior
adviser for infrastructure and water.
Projections last year by the Water Resources Group, a
consortium of private-sector companies formed to tackle water
scarcity, point to a global gap of 40 percent between the supply
and demand for water by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario.
The imbalance is particularly daunting in India, where the
trend toward a middle-class diet will increase demand for meat,
sugar and wheat, which require a lot of water to produce.
Agriculture uses almost 90 percent of India's water.
By 2030, demand will grow to almost 1.5 trillion cubic
meters, or 53 trillion cubic feet, compared with the current
supply of about 740 billion cubic meters, according to a report
for the Water Resources Group by the consultant firm McKinsey.
As a result, in the absence of concerted action, most Indian
river basins could face a severe water deficit by 2030.
The probable water deficit for China is more manageable on
paper — a shortfall of 200 billion cubic meters — but 21 percent
of the country's surface water resources are unfit even for
farming, which consumes about 70 percent of the country's water.
What makes such forecasts even more daunting is evidence
that global warming is already eroding the Himalayan glaciers
covering the Tibetan plateau, which feed China's neighbors,
including India and Pakistan, as well as China itself.
More than 80 percent of the glaciers in western China are in
retreat, according to a study by a group of mainly Chinese
climate change scientists in the September issue of Nature.
Over all, 5 percent to 27 percent of China's glacial area is
forecast to disappear by 2050, the study said.
"Even though the exact timing and magnitude of the 'tipping
point' of each glacier is still uncertain, the projected
long-term exhaustion of glacial water supply should have a
considerable impact on the availability of water for both
agricultural and human consumption," the scientists wrote.
Because 60 percent of the runoff from China glaciers flows
out of the country, this can spell only trouble.
China's plans for more dams on the Mekong and on other major
rivers that tumble down from the Tibetan plateau already have its
southern neighbors on edge.
"As far as transboundary management of water is concerned, I
think certainly the Himalayas are likely to be a flash point,"
said Mr. Thapan of the Asian Development Bank.
The risk of conflict over water rights is magnified because
China and India are home to more than a third of the world's
population yet have to make do with less than 10 percent of its
water.
"Although both nations are seeking to become the superpowers
of the 21st century, their weak point is water," according to
Yoichi Funabashi, a prominent foreign-affairs commentator and
editor in chief of the Asahi Shimbun, a Japanese newspaper.
India and Pakistan are another potential point of friction.
The Indus Waters Treaty, which parceled out river-use rights
after India's partition in 1947, has survived three wars between
the two neighbors since it was signed in 1960. But the pact is
under strain from Indian plans for more upstream dams and water
diversion.
So what is to be done? Given that agriculture accounts for
almost 70 percent of global water use, it will be critical to
increase "crop per drop" through improved irrigation techniques
and by growing food that needs less water.
In the words of the Water Resources Group, "While the gap
between supply and demand WILL be closed, the question is HOW."
As Mr. Funabashi puts it, oil can ultimately be replaced by
other resources, but the same is not true for water. Water is
also closely tied to food, energy and climate change.
"In that sense, water is a key component of national
security," Mr. Funabashi wrote last month.
"If the 20th century witnessed the rise and fall of nations
over oil, the 21st century could be one in which the rise and
fall of nations is determined by water," he added.
Alan Wheatley is a Reuters correspondent.
Copyright 2010 The New York Times Company
-0- Oct/12/2010 07:31 GMT
