comments my way folks ...from wall st journal In Virginia House Race, Cap and Trade Matters
By TENNILLE TRACY
WASHINGTON—Rep. Rick Boucher (D., Va.) took a risky bet when he voted last year for a cap-and-trade bill to reduce greenhouse gases. Now, the decision is coming back to haunt him.
Hoping to unseat Mr. Boucher in Virginia's 9th District, Republican candidate Morgan Griffith is hammering away at the congressman's vote on the cap-and-trade bill.
Mr. Griffith characterizes Mr. Boucher's vote as a betrayal of the coal industry and the mining companies that provide much-needed jobs in the district. Unemployment in 9th District counties has reached 9.1%, which is higher than the state average of 7%, according to the Virginia Employment Commission.
While Mr. Boucher appears likely to win re-election, it won't be easy. He will probably win by the narrowest margin since 1984.
Polls show Mr. Boucher leading Mr. Griffith by more than 10 percentage points, but Real Clear Politics says the race is too close to call. Mr. Boucher's cap-and-trade vote is playing a role in the campaign and voters in the district already lean toward Republicans, said Real Clear Politics senior elections strategist Sean Trende.
Mr. Boucher, a 14-term Democrat who first joined Congress in 1982, defended his cap-and-trade vote. He said he acted on behalf of the coal industry and was urged by National Mining Association President Harold Quinn to "get the best deal for coal that I could," Mr. Boucher said.
"I'm the go-to guy for the coal industry," Mr. Boucher said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires. "And when the coal industry said 'we need you to help us,' of course I said yes."
The National Mining Association didn't return requests for comment.
The dynamics of the 9th District congressional race illustrate the risk lawmakers face in casting politically sensitive votes on energy and environmental issues. These votes have become particularly dicey as the federal government moves to curb global warming and shift away from coal and other traditional fuel sources.
The U.S. House of Representatives approved its cap-and-trade bill, known as the American Clean Energy and Security Act, in June 2009. The Senate hasn't yet taken up the issue.
Mr. Boucher helped to craft the House bill and made important changes to the emissions credits that helped coal and power industries. He made sure power plants could continue to use coal even as the legislation forced them to pay for coal-generated greenhouse gases under a cap-and-trade program.
"If it hadn't been for Rick Boucher, the end of the coal industry would've been written on the wall," said Phil Smith, a spokesman for the United Mine Workers of America.
Some of the voters in the 9th District, however, don't seem to see it that way.
"The cap-and-trade bill has been enormously unpopular in places like the 9th district because it appears—like it or not—to be anti-coal," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
The 9th district occupies the southwest part of Virginia, a rolling landscape known as "hills and hollers" territory. Workers labor in coal mines or work for companies that support mining operations.
The mining jobs are among the most lucrative in the district, with an average weekly wage of $1,250. These jobs are evaporating, however: Mining employment is projected to drop by 6.3% between 2008 and 2018, according to the Virginia Employment Commission.
Political strategists first realized district voters were tracking cap-and-trade policies last year. That's when voters in Buchanan, Russell and Tazewell counties booted out a Democrat incumbent in the General Assembly in favor of a young Republican newcomer, Will Morefield, who criticized the cap-and-trade proposals.
Morgan Griffith sensed this dynamic when he launched his bid for Congress.
While visiting a mine owned by Consol Energy Inc. in June, Mr. Griffith climbed up the side of a bulldozer to introduce himself to the driver. But before he could finish, the driver interrupted him and said, "All I care about is whether you're going to vote for coal or against coal."
"I think the vote on cap and trade shocked them," Mr. Griffith said. "They couldn't believe [Boucher] would vote against coal."
Some voters may turn on Mr. Boucher because of his cap-and-trade vote. But coal and power companies and their employees, such as Dominion Resources Inc., Edison International and American Electric Power Co., continue to back the incumbent.
Mr. Boucher is the number-one recipient of campaign contributions from utility-company employees and political-action committees, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. He is also the fifth-largest recipient in the House of Representatives of contributions from coal-company employees and political-action committees.
The Boucher race illustrates a disconnect between voters and the coal and power industries regarding the inevitability of greenhouse-gas limits.
Many industry lobbyists believe the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or Congress will impose some type of greenhouse-gas reductions. Assuming this, some lobbyists want lawmakers such as Mr. Boucher to help to shape the outcome.
Mr. Boucher, to be sure, said he was acting on behalf of the voters when he voted for cap and trade.
"My constituents are not going to be misled," he said. "They have full confidence in me."
Write to Tennille Tracy at tennille.tracy@dowjones.com
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Mathew Carr, emissions markets, energy reporter. London Bloomberg News ph +44 207 073 3531 yahoo ID carr_mathew
