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Hurricane Paula Likely to Spare Mexican Resorts on Path to Cuba
2010-10-12 23:00:01.5 GMT
By Brian K. Sullivan and Alex Morales
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Paula's winds probably
won't be enough to damage Mexico's hotels and resorts as the
storm skirts by the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on a
path toward Cuba, a risk analyst said.
Paula's strongest sustained winds were 100 miles (160
kilometers) per hour, according to a National Hurricane Center
special advisory at 5 p.m. East Coast time yesterday. It is a
Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.
"At Category 2 wind speeds, there should be little or no
damage, apart from window damage, to engineered structures in
this region -- i.e., modern hotels in the popular tourist
resorts of Cozumel and Cancun," Tim Doggett, principal
scientist at AIR Worldwide Corp. in Boston, said in an e-mailed
statement. AIR is a risk modeler for the insurance industry.
The official track shows the storm scraping by the
Yucatan's east coast and possibly drifting farther inland. After
coming close to the Yucatan tomorrow, the storm is expected to
come ashore in western Cuba later this week. Winds of at least
39 mph are expected to reach the Yucatan coast later today, the
Hurricane Center said.
"The people there are going to have to prepare for it to
come ashore," said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather
Underground Inc. in Ann Arbor, Michigan. "They are in the cone
of uncertainty."
The storm won't be a threat to U.S. oil installations in
the Gulf of Mexico, according to Jim Rouiller, senior energy
meteorologist for Planalytics Inc in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.
Heavy Rain
The main impact may be heavy rain rather than damaging
winds if Paula, a small storm, stays out to sea. The storm's
hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph extend out 10 miles,
and its tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph reach 60
miles from the eye.
"It is pretty tiny," Masters said. "And that small size
is going to make it vulnerable to rapid decay."
Paula is the ninth hurricane and the 16th named storm, with
winds of at least 39 mph, to form in the Atlantic season. It was
105 miles south-southeast of Cozumel and moving north-northwest
at about 9 mph, according to the hurricane center. The average
season has 11 storms.
"We don't often make it up to the letter P in the alphabet
and it is only October," Masters said. "On average we can
expect one more or two more named storms. It is shaping up to
being one of the busiest seasons of all time."
Drenching Honduras
Last month, Tropical Storm Matthew drenched Honduras,
Guatemala and southern Mexico. Tropical Storm Karl plowed across
the Yucatan on Sept. 15 after coming ashore south of Cancun,
then strengthened into a hurricane over the gulf before striking
mainland Mexico near Veracruz. Cancun will be the site of two
weeks of United Nations climate talks starting Nov. 29.
Earlier this season, Hurricane Alex struck the area, as did
Tropical Storm Agatha, which came in off the Pacific. At least
300 people have died from this year's storms, according to
reports from several Central American nations.
Paula may produce 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain over
the eastern Yucatan and western and central Cuba, according to
the advisory.
"These rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides," the center said.
A hurricane warning was in place for the Mexican coast from
Punta Gruesa to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel, as well as for
the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio. Forecasters said tropical
storm-force winds are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area later today with hurricane conditions
early tomorrow. Some strengthening is possible during the next
day or two, the center said.
Storm Surge
A storm surge may produce flooding along the east coast of
the Yucatan. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large waves, it said.
A tropical storm warning is in place in Mexico from Cabo
Catoche to San Felipe. A warning from Punta Gruesa to Chetumal
has been dropped, according to the hurricane center.
Mexico has a 45 percent chance of being hit by at least a
Category 1 storm in the next 18 hours, according to Tropical
Storm Risk, a London-based forecaster of catastrophic risk that
grew out of a U.K. government-supported tsunami initiative. TSR
said in a statement that the chance of a tropical storm strength
system hitting the country is 75 percent.
Cancun has a 40 percent chance of being struck by a
Category 1 hurricane and Cozumel a 35 percent chance, TSR said.
Rouiller said after Paula dissipates models suggest another
storm may form next week south of Jamaica.
For Related News and Information:
Climate-change news: NI CLIMATE <GO>
Top environment, renewable energy page: GREEN <GO>
Most-read environmental news: MNI ENV <GO>
Bloomberg's weather center: WEAT <GO>
--With assistance from Blake Schmidt in Granada, Nicaragua.
Editors: Dan Stets, Richard Stubbe.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at +1-617-210-4631 or
bsullivan10@bloomberg.net;
Alex Morales in London at +44-20-7330-7718 or
amorales2@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Dan Stets at +1-212-617-4403 or dstets@bloomberg.net
