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Move Beyond CO2-Target Debate, Ex-Climate Chief Says (Update1)
2010-09-07 15:04:53.108 GMT
(Adds fight over targets at Copenhagen in fifth paragraph.)
By Alex Morales
Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The greenhouse-gas targets pledged
by nations after the United Nations climate talks in Copenhagen
in December won't change much before 2020 so there's little
point debating them, the man who stewarded the summit said.
International negotiations that are "painstakingly slow"
are continuing, and non-binding cuts pledged by the U.S., Japan,
China and European nations are "basically what we've got to
work with for 2020," said former UN climate chief Yvo de Boer,
now an adviser for the accounting firm KPMG International.
The targets aren't enough to curb global warming to 2
degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial
levels, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change has said. Even
so, countries should focus on achieving what they've promised
and making the investments needed to spur low-carbon
technologies such as wind and solar power, de Boer said in an
interview today in London.
"Discussions about targets have become largely irrelevant
in the context of the Copenhagen outcome," said Boer, 56. "I
don't think that we're going to see a dramatic increase in the
level of ambition."
Squabbling over targets contributed to the failure of more
than 190 nations in Copenhagen to devise a treaty. Poorer
nations said developed states need to adopt more ambitious
goals, while countries such as the U.S., the biggest developed
emitter, said developing nations including China, which releases
the most greenhouse gases, must have legal obligations.
Tipping Points
The only current treaty, the Kyoto Protocol, set targets
for developed nations and led to the creation of a carbon market
in Europe with emissions limits for companies including German
utilities E.ON AG and RWE AG, and Centrica Plc, Britain's
biggest energy supplier. If brought in, similar rules in the
U.S. could impose limits on companies such as U.S. Steel Corp.
and Exxon Mobil Corp.
Business has a "big contribution" to make in achieving
the needed reductions, with the International Energy Agency
estimating $20 trillion needs to be spent on energy
infrastructure from now to 2030, according to de Boer. Developed
nations are "very likely indeed" to slash emissions by 80
percent by 2050, he said.
"It'll be slower in taking off and more extreme in
subsequent reductions," de Boer said. "In a number of areas,
there really are tipping points. There is a certain electricity
price which does not make wind energy viable, but go up by 2
cents, and it does. When you reach tipping points like that on
wind, on solar, on battery technology, on hybrid cars, then the
change will be very dramatic."
3 Degrees of Warming
Greenhouse-gas emissions reductions pledged so far would
lead to total warming of 3 degrees to 3.9 degrees Celsius, the
Pew Center has said. That's more than the 2-degree maximum
sought by the U.S. and European Union and the 1.5 degrees
proposed by an alliance of 43 low-lying and island nations.
Developed countries that pledged a range of reductions
dependent on actions by other nations, including Australia and
the 27-nation European Union, may still move up from the lower
end of those pledges, de Boer said.
One of the stalling points is the absence of federal
legislation in the U.S. to fight climate change, said de Boer. A
climate bill stalled last year in the U.S. Senate, and such laws
are unlikely to be passed in President Barack Obama's first term
of office, he said.
"I think it's inconceivable that that legislation is
considered before the midterm election, and I would be quite
surprised to see that legislation get on the agenda in the
current first term," De Boer said.
For Related News and Information:
Climate-change news: NI CLIMATE <GO>
Top renewable energy stories: GREEN <GO>
Most-read environmental news: MNI ENV <GO>
--Editors: Todd White, Randall Hackley
To contact the reporter on this story:
Alex Morales in London at +44-20-7330-7718 or
amorales2@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Reed Landberg at +44-20-7330-7862 or landberg@bloomberg.net.
