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Record Warmth Spawns Stronger Hurricanes Across Atlantic Ocean
2010-09-20 22:00:01.1 GMT
By Brian K. Sullivan and Alex Morales
Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The four major Atlantic hurricanes
that spun toward the Caribbean in the past month were fueled by
record warm seas and formed in an unprecedented 20 days. With 10
weeks left in the hurricane season, more may be coming.
The storms that were born off west Africa gathered strength
by absorbing the ocean's heat and swelled into Category 4-level
hurricanes on the 5-step Saffir-Simpson scale. While none hit
land at full speed, each packed winds of at least 131 miles (210
kilometers) an hour, stronger than Katrina's Category 3 winds
when it devastated New Orleans at the end of August in 2005.
As Igor churned past Bermuda yesterday and cut power to
two-thirds of the colony's residents, a new storm threatens to
form in the east Atlantic. While the six-month season is past
its statistical peak, forecasters and insurers said warmer seas
can lengthen the danger period to property, from beach homes in
Florida and the Hamptons to rigs and refineries owned by Royal
Dutch Shell Plc and ConocoPhillips in the oil-rich Gulf.
"The hotter the water, the higher the octane level, and
there is going to be far more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes,"
said Jim Rouiller, a U.S. Air Force meteorologist for 20 years
who works for Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.
The season may be busy for another month, said Simon Young,
chief executive officer of the insurer Caribbean Risk Managers
Ltd. "All the ingredients" are in place for major hurricanes
to form in the rest of this year, he said.
'Nightmare Scenario'
"The nightmare scenario for industry losses is a Miami
hit, closely followed by a New York hurricane," Young said in a
telephone interview from Washington. "Gulf oil is a huge issue
for the insurance industry. There's a feeling that if something
big happens, there's going to be some hard times."
The National Hurricane Center predicts 2010 will have as
many as 20 storms of at least 39 mile-an-hour winds, meaning
they'll be named, compared with 11 in a typical year. Already 11
were reached this year with Hurricane Karl on Sept. 14. The
Miami-based agency has identified five major hurricanes in 2010,
compared with two in an average season when waters are cooler.
The season runs June through November, peaking around Sept.
10. After that, major storms can and do still form. In 2005,
Hurricane Rita's winds peaked at 178 miles per hour on Sept. 22.
The Atlantic had record temperatures since March, and by
the end of August a swath of the ocean was 3 degrees Fahrenheit
(1.7 Celsius) above average, Gerry Bell, lead hurricane
forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration in Camp Springs, Maryland, said in an interview.
The records date to 1854.
Fomenting Hurricanes
Hurricanes gather energy from the warmth of the sea, one of
several factors that increase their punch such as having similar
wind speeds at various altitudes. This year's record warmth may
help prolong the season, as will conditions associated with La
Nina, a weather pattern that reduces high-altitude winds that
impede Atlantic storm development.
Petroleum assets owned by companies including Shell and
Exxon Mobil Corp., the biggest oil producers in Europe and the
U.S. respectively, pump 31 percent of U.S. crude, 10 percent of
its natural gas and account for 43 percent of refining. Rigs
typically evacuate workers when a hurricane comes within
striking distance, temporarily halting production.
"Preparedness for hurricanes and hurricane seasons is built
into all our plans," David Nicholas, a London-based spokesman
for BP Plc, said yesterday in a telephone interview. "It's part
of operating in the Gulf."
The Weather Research Center in Houston has created a model
that shows a storm with the strength of Katrina or Rita would
damage or destroy about 10 percent of all the oil platforms it
passed over, center President Jill Hasling said. Both hurricanes
peaked at Category 5, the top level, over the Gulf.
'Might Not Survive'
"You still have a lot of platforms out here, older
platforms that might not survive a direct hit by a hurricane,"
Hasling said. "It's the waves that cause most of the damage so
you want to keep the waves out of your decks."
Eight of the 10 most expensive U.S. catastrophes were
hurricanes, including Katrina, the most costly at $41 billion,
according to the New York-based Insurance Information Institute.
Hurricanes "account for the majority of top catastrophes
in dollar terms," said Robert Hartwig, president and economist
at the Insurance Information Institute, a New York-based trade
group.
Category 5 storms, the most destructive, have winds greater
than 155 mph. The four Category 4 storms so far this year were
Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia.
Swiss Reinsurance Co., the world's second-largest
reinsurer, is one of several insurance companies gearing up
their research into the heat effect, one of several natural
phenomena that intensify hurricanes in light of scientific
reports that forecast a warming of oceans this century.
Damage Costs
Climate change may add 50 percent to the storm damage costs
incurred by some Caribbean nations over the next two decades,
Swiss Re said last month.
The concern of insurers and forecasters is supported by the
intensity and frequency of hurricanes catalogued this year by
the hurricane center.
Prior to this year, 1958, 1969 and 2005 were among the
warmest for the Atlantic. While the average season produces two
major hurricanes, 1958 and 1969 had five and 2005 spawned seven.
"Warmer than normal water temperatures, with all other
factors being equal, do provide the opportunity for hurricanes
to reach higher intensities," said Chris Landsea, science and
operations officer for the National Hurricane Center.
In the Gulf of Mexico, the consequences of major hurricanes
can be devastating. In 2005, Katrina and Rita were blamed with
damaging or destroying 167 platforms as well as 535 pipeline
segments, according to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management,
Regulation and Enforcement.
Destroyed Platforms
Nine months after the storms passed, 22 percent of oil and
13 percent of gas was still shut in, resulting in a loss of 150
million barrels of oil and 730 billion cubic feet of gas,
according to the agency.
By contrast, Hurricane Ike, a Category 2 storm in the Gulf,
destroyed 49 of the 3,800 oil and gas platforms it passed in
2008, according to the federal Minerals Management Service.
The Atlantic's heat and uptick in intense hurricanes are
fueling the debate on the role played by global warming.
"There are always natural fluctuations going on but the
long-term upward trend seems to be a global-warming signal,"
said Kerry Emanuel, professor of tropical meteorology at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge.
For Related News and Information:
Tropical weather affecting the U.S.: STNI USHURRICANES <GO>
Top storm info: STRM <GO>
Bloomberg weather center: WEAT <GO>
Top energy stories: ETOP <GO>
--Editors: Todd White, Randall Hackley
To contact the reporters on this story:
Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at +1-617-210-4631 or
bsullivan10@bloomberg.net
Alex Morales in London at +44-20-7330-7718 or
amorales2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Reed Landberg at +44-20-7330-7862 or
landberg@bloomberg.net
Dan Stets at +1-212-617-4403 or dstets@bloomberg.net
