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Australia's 'Greenslide' may not help ease pollution
2010-09-02 04:45:36.66 GMT
Sept. 02 (AFP) -- Australia's environmental lobby is
celebrating an unprecedented "Greenslide" in national
elections, but it remains unclear whether new political power
will translate into action on climate change.
The Greens, a left-wing minority party, emerged as the big
winners from the country's cliffhanger polls, doubling their
share of the national vote to a record 11.5 percent and taking
a critical seat in the deadlocked lower house.
Jubilant leader Bob Brown called it a "Greenslide", with
his party also taking the balance of power in the upper house
Senate by bagging a seat in every state of the world's worst
per-capita polluter.
In a parliament where neither the ruling Labor party nor
the conservative Liberal/National coalition have an outright
majority -- a situation not seen for 70 years -- their votes
will be crucial in passing new laws.
"Certainly having a (lower) house seat in this government
is important, because every single house seat counts, which is
rare," explained climate policy expert Andrew Macintosh, from
the Australian National University.
"(Greens MP Adam) Bandt is going to be in the balance and
they're going to need his vote every single time to get
anything through," he added. "They're going to have to pander
to whatever he wants and what the Greens want."
Labor joined forces with Bandt this week, signing a formal
agreement that demanded action on global warming and other
reforms as conditions of Greens support.
But the alliance means the Greens are relying on Labor to
beat the conservatives to forming a minority government if they
are to exercise a large part of their newfound clout, a
prospect that remains in the balance.
Labor stormed to power three years ago on a pro-
environment platform, with ex-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd quickly
ratifying the Kyoto Protocol and taking a lead role in last
year's failed Copenhagen climate talks.
But Rudd twice failed to get his flagship emissions
trading scheme (ETS) through parliament and passed up the
chance to use the rejections as a trigger for early elections,
at a time when the opposition was riven by infighting.
Faced with widespread public anger, Labor revolted against
Rudd, axing him in June and softening its stance on climate
change, losing vital support in the process.
"Climate change was one of the biggest issues that led to
the Labor party being unable to form a government on their
own," said activist Simon Sheikh, from the grassroots political
group GetUp.
Labor wants companies to pay for their carbon pollution,
but is vague on detail. The rival coalition is led by Tony
Abbott, who rose through the ranks by opposing the ETS. He
questions mankind's influence on climate change.
Abbott agrees with Prime Minister Julia Gillard on
reducing emissions by five percent of 2000 levels by 2020, but
says carbon pricing will raise the cost of a wide range of
items, calling it a "great big new tax on everything".
By contrast, the Greens want a minimum 40 percent
reduction in emissions from 1990 levels and for Australia to
achieve zero net emissions within 40 years.
If Labor manages to win over enough of the four
independents to form a government their alliance with the
Greens means "some sort of climate change policy is coming",
says Monash University political scientist Nick Economou.
"I think Labor could deliver on (such a policy) because of
its numbers in the Senate," Economou said, referring to the
Greens' nine seats in the upper house, in which no party has a
majority.
But Macintosh was doubtful that, if Labor took power,
measures such as a carbon tax would get past the independents,
who are from all rural, largely conservative electorates that
depend on mining and farming.
"Labor's still going to have to control those
independents, including Bob Katter who's a climate sceptic," he
said.
"Even if Labor gets up it's still not certain that it will
lead to a carbon price in this term. My guess is (it) probably
(will) not."
At least two of the four independents want action on
global warming and this week met with Lord Nicholas Stern,
climate adviser to the British government, as part of the their
deliberations.
Manning is also doubtful that the "Greenslide" will move
the climate debate forward, but he believes the party will at
least keep the prospect alive.
"The Greens will keep the question of putting a price on
carbon on the public agenda," he said. "It was less likely to
be on the agenda in the absence of their gains."
ajc/th/hg
-0- Sep/02/2010 04:45 GMT
