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China to Drive Energy Surge to 2035, Warming Planet, IEA Says
2010-11-09 10:00:00.18 GMT
By Grant Smith
Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China will drive a surge in world
energy demand over the next quarter century, as straining supply
enhances OPEC's oil market share and growing coal use undermines
efforts to contain global warming, according to a report.
Chinese demand will jump 75 percent, accounting for more
than a third of an increase in energy use that will bring global
consumption to 16.7 billion metric tons of oil equivalent by
2035, the International Energy Agency forecasts in its annual
World Energy Outlook. Oil supplies will be pushed near their
peak, thwarting government pledges to limit the increase in
global temperature to 2 degrees Celsius.
"Oil market developments and growth in CO2 emissions are
my greatest concern," IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said in a
telephone interview from Paris. "Demand from emerging markets
will be strong. There is a lack of united political will to
reduce carbon emissions."
Global oil demand will increase 18 percent to 99 million
barrels a day in 2035, from 84 million a day in 2009, the IEA
said. The agency lowered its 2035 estimate for oil use by 6
million barrels a day because of government pledges to curtail
carbon emissions under the Copenhagen Accord signed last
December.
Oil supply, including production of oils not classified as
crude, "comes close" to reaching a peak by 2035, driving
prices up to $113 a barrel in 2009 terms, from around $86 a
barrel today, according to the agency. Supplies of crude alone
will not regain the peak of 70 million barrels a day reached in
2006, as output from ageing fields tapers off, it added.
'Not Good News'
"This price trajectory is not good news for anyone," the
IEA's Birol said. "Many oil-importing countries are still in a
fragile situation. There are already plans for moving away from
oil in the transportation sector in many consuming countries.
That would not be good news for oil exporters."
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will
account for 50 percent of the world's oil supply by 2035 while
production from outside the group falters, the IEA said. OPEC
currently accounts for about 40 percent of global supply.
Consumption of natural gas will increase 44 percent to 4.5
trillion cubic meters in 2035, from 3.1 trillion cubic meters in
2008, according to the agency.
The share of nuclear power in the energy mix will rise to 8
percent in 2035, from 6 percent in 2008, while the proportion of
renewable resources will grow to 14 percent from 7 percent, the
IEA said.
Still, reliance on fossil fuels means that emissions of
carbon dioxide will increase 21 percent to 35 billion tons in
2035 from 29 billion tons in 2008, leading to an increase of 3.5
degrees Celsius in world temperature "in the long term," the
agency said.
Climate Change
The agency's default set of assumptions, called the "New
Policies Scenario," includes government commitments to tackling
climate change, such as the Copenhagen Accord.
The IEA also outlined another case, the "450 Scenario,"
which details the measures that would be necessary to reduce the
concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere to 450 parts per million, and limit the increase
in global temperature to 2 degrees Celsius.
These measures will require additional spending of $11.6
trillion than under the "New Policies" scenario through 2030,
the IEA said. The costs are about $1 trillion more than the
agency had estimated last year, to compensate for the
shortcomings of existing global climate change policies.
For Related News and Information:
Today's top energy, oil stories ETOP <GO>, OTOP <GO>
IEA news NI IEA <GO>
Commodity forward price curves CCRV <GO>
Global energy statistics ENST <GO>
--Editors: Raj Rajendran, Stephen Voss
To contact the reporters on this story:
Grant Smith in London at +44-20-7330-7353 or
gsmith52@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Stephen Voss on +44-20-7073-3520 or sev@bloomberg.net
