Australian PM extends lead in election race
SYDNEY, July 19 (Reuters) – Australian Prime Minister Julia
Gillard's chances of winning an August 21 election were boosted
on Monday with an opinion poll showing voters overwhelmingly
preferred her as prime minister.
The country's first woman prime minister, appointed in a
Labor party coup last month, held a commanding 57-27 lead over
conservative leader Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister,
according to the Newspoll survey in The Australian newspaper.
The Labor government held a 55-45 lead over the
Liberal-National opposition, the survey showed. This compared
with weekend Galaxy polls putting Labor just ahead or neck and
neck.
"There will be many, many polls between now and election
day. What I know is that this election is genuinely on a
knife-edge," Gillard told radio on Monday, the second day of
the campaign.
The opposition only needs nine more seats from its current
strength to form a government with four independents, or 13 to
take office outright.
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The election is being fought over the government's plans
for a new 30 percent mining tax, its promise of a carbon price
to tackle climate change, management of Australia's robust
economy and asylum seeker/border protection issues.
Financial markets did not react to the fresh poll numbers,
but there are some market risks.
"Because both parties are close to the centre of the
political spectrum, the economy is in good shape and there are
no defining issues, the risk is that minor parties and
independents will pick up ground. That creates the risk of a
very tight result, a hung parliament or a minority government,"
Craig James, chief economist at CommSec, said in an election
analysis.
A conservative win is expected to see mining stocks jump.
The opposition has vowed to dump the government's mining
tax, which is estimated to raise A$10.5 billion from 2012 and
has been signed off on by global miners BHP Billiton
(BLT.AX: Quote, Profile, Research)(BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research), Rio Tinto (RIO.AX: Quote, Profile, Research)(R IO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and Xstrata (XTA.L: Quote, Profile, Research).
The opposition is also opposed to a carbon price, saying it
would be a burden on consumers and business. But business has
warned the lack of a climate policy and carbon price is having
a negative impact on investment, especially in the power
sector.
Gillard has yet to announce her climate policy.
Fund managers said aside from mining tax, some
uncertainties had been cleared after an A$11 billion agreement
with Telstra Corp (TLS.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) to help build a national broadband
network.
"The government's done a fair bit to remove some of those
uncertainties already as we go into an election. Those are the
sort of things that catch the market to some degree," said
George Clapham, head of equities at Arnhem Investment
Management.
DEAL WITH GREENS
The Labor government was headed for electoral defeat before
a Labor party coup saw Gillard replace Kevin Rudd on June 24.
The postponment of a carbon trading scheme by Rudd saw
Green voters desert Labor and Gillard needs to woo them back.
Labor and the small Greens party agreed a deal on Monday to
ensure Labor gains Green votes in the lower house, which will
determine government, if a Green candidate fails to win.
It will also mean that the Greens receive Labor votes in
the upper house Senate, where they are expected to have the
balance of power, if a Labor candidate fails to win.
A Greens-controlled Senate could push Labor to introduce an
interim carbon price in return for support on other
legislation.
(Additional reporting by Sonali Paul; Editing by Ed Davies
and Sanjeev Miglani)
